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vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2252
Joined: 2020
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/1/2022 6:19:57 PM
I have been reading Russia may use May 9th to mobilize its reserves and country to launch an all out invasion of Ukraine and put its country on a war footing. I personally dont see how this is possible I dont think Russia has the manufacturing capability and the losses it has taken and the meat grinder its been going through is just making the country weaker. But I remember Hitler underestimated the Russians as well, hopefully the Chinese dont give them lend lease.
vpatrick
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nuts
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4358
Joined: 2004
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/2/2022 12:11:52 AM
VP, I’ve read similar suggestions. Russian celebration of their victory in the Great Patriotic War is a major date on the Russian calendar. My understanding is that Mr Putin has been pressing his military to give him a pride-saving victory by then. My guess is Mr Putin ain’t gonna get it. How he might manipulate that failure into any new strategies is certainly beyond me. What appears certain is that his decisions will depend on the success of his basic propaganda direction, which increasingly focuses on the idea of a growing NATO assault on a threatened Russia. IMHO, that’s crap. But that is what the Russians are hearing.

I think a general mobilization would be largely meaningless, largely but not entirely based on the issues you question. Russian assets have been severely reduced during the past months, as have some of the a-list Russian troops. And while Russia may be able to mobilize vast numbers of troops, even at the most basic levels one must wonder whether they can dress them, outfit them, retrain them or otherwise make them effective ground troops in the near future.

May I offer the following link? Its a US think tank which, IMHO, offers decent assessment with very little bias.
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/2/2022 5:34:35 AM
I think Putin had assumed that it would all have been over by 9th May. Well that went well.

Reading reports today in Swiss media that over 200,000 Russians have left Russia. Mostly to Helsinki, Istanbul and Tblisi. Among high profile artists, musicians, writers, activists they are mostly from the proffessional classes especially IT specialists. Seems to be the start of a Russian brain drain.

Also worth noting is that in the first case in history, the Swiss have lifted their Bank Secret Laws to enable the sanction of russian oligarchs. If you´ve got the Swiss against you then you are really in deep trouble.

Trevor
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`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2252
Joined: 2020
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/7/2022 8:29:46 PM
Trevor,

Two days to go to May 9th Russian celebrations over the defeat of Nazi Germany and I would say the Russians have nothing to celebrate concerning their "special operation" . In fact the "special operation" has hurt the Russian Federation needlessly a once feared Military now has its tanks and soldiers destroyed all over Ukraine. The west realizes now if they were to face the Russian military it would be a slaughter for the untrained Russians. Sweden and Finland will join Nato, Germany is realizing their folly for depending on Russian fossil fuels and Germany is doubling if not tripling its military expenditures. Nato is United and pissed and as you said even the Swiss are pissed, even read that Spain's Queen is sending grenades and warm wishes to Ukraine.

We are witnessing a nation commit suicide for the sake of national security.


vpatrick
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nuts
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4358
Joined: 2004
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/7/2022 10:16:43 PM
VP, let’s see.

I rather agree with you. But what’ll it look like on the big screens in Russia on 9 May? There is – so we hear – a parade route in Mariupol that has been cleansed. Street signs are in Russian; Russian flags are on poles. Russian troops have been undergoing training for the parade. I can’t believe this won’t play well in Russia, on this most patriotic of days.

It might even be arguable that the losses Russia has incurred could be sold as proof of the power and viciousness of the Nazi controllers of the Ukraine, and why taking all of Ukraine is such an honourable commitment. Once a basic belief is established, whether true or not, an argument, however illogical, can be built using any current situation.

Personally, at this point I’m not concerned about whether Mr Putin implements some form of “national mobilization”. I recognize it will play well in Russia, and I recognize the mere act of national mobilization will build support for the Ukrainian invasion. But such an action’s major threat is that there are huge numbers of bodies – however well-trained or equipped – which can be directed against a much smaller Ukrainian army and militia. I have nothing but admiration for Ukrainian forces … no, I also have some awe as well. They are showing not just defensive acumen, but pretty good offensive strategy as well. In the years since 2014 it seems their military capabilities have increased dramatically. They seem to be adapting to new weapons arriving from at least logistic allies daily. But there is the danger that soon the Ukrainian ability to defend and counter-attack will collapse.

That’s my biggest concern right now.

Cheers
Brian G



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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2252
Joined: 2020
Will Russia Mobilize May 9th All out War!
5/7/2022 10:28:48 PM
Hi Brian,

If Russian forces are able to look at Mariupol as a win by leveling it good luck, the Russian over all goal was to subigate Ukraine and turn it into a a Belarus like nation by leveling its cities they have failed. Even if Russia brings Ukraine to its knees the war of partisans will continue, I dont see a win for Russia at any level. In fact I see Ukrainian's counter attacking and winning this.



vpatrick
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nuts

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