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 (2000-Pres) Current Day Military talk (No Partisan Politics)
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Larry Purtell
Little Meadows PA USA
Posts: 1438
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/18/2022 5:35:38 PM
I saw a report earlier where president Zelensky stated that the battle for Donbas has started. This report was on one of our local news channels. i can find no MSM reports of this. Was he misstated?

Larry
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"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5452
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/18/2022 6:04:26 PM
Larry,

The news is authentic, and there has been no misquote.

A new intensification is underway.

Regards, Phil
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"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Larry Purtell
Little Meadows PA USA
Posts: 1438
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/18/2022 6:22:59 PM
Thanks Phil. If the russian army loss's this round I see a very bleak future for Mr. putin. Hopefully enough Western arms and other supplies have reached the Ukrainian army to make them the victors in this unneeded war.

Larry.
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"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4209
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/18/2022 9:21:36 PM
Not to be a “negative Nellie”, but I expect there is every chance this will be a different war entirely. I ask you to keep “The Winter War” with Finland in mind as I suggest the following:

1 The initial attempts against Ukraine were fraudulently explained to Russian troops, at least in the North. Those troops didn’t think they were invading. They were liberating.
2 The Russian military was ill-prepared for urban resistance, particularly as successfully as they faced. This seems to apply in both north and southeast: think of Mariupol.
3 The battle in the east will not be an urban battle. IMHO this will be a better fit for standard Soviet tactics and weaponry. Countering that is the knowledge Ukrainians have of their enemy, since they have been fighting a static engagement now for some years.

If Ukrainian forces can hold their lines against a Russian assault which will be based (ultimately) on Blitzkrieg techniques, we’ll be entering a period of ugly stalement. Russian losses in tanks, mobilized rocketry and artillery leaves, IIUC, only one major shot to breach the Ukrainian line sufficiently to cause a Ukrainian collapse.

I guess what I’m saying is that it would be wrong for anyone to believe Ukraine III will be similar to either Ukraine I or Ukraine II. And it would be wrong to assume Russia doesn’t learn from its mistakes.

At the same time, what I understand of Russian offensive structures may underestimate the defensive power of hand-held weaponry. While it will be more challenging to employ anti-tank equipment in eastern Ukraine, e.g., many of the armoured units may be sufficiently “gun shy” after their experiences in north Ukraine to be less prepared to execute standard procedure as per Russian army.

Cheers,
Brian G.
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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1034
Joined: 2005
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/18/2022 11:47:08 PM
Der Speigel is also reporting Ukrainian reports the attacks started Sunday, that the Russians have been silent is a sign as well the offensive has begun; outside of course of Putins Tu-95 nuke capable bomber flybys along the border. And, Putin has given the "honorary" title of "Guards" to the 64th Motorized Infantry Brigade, the unit suspected of committing atrocities against civilians in Bucha.


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"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5452
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/19/2022 2:21:50 AM
A horrible precedent - in recent times - comes to mind.

Sri Lanka is in the news now, on account of its catastrophic economic collapse, along with all the hardship and trauma that this entails.

Think back a dozen or so years, and you might remember the enormous onslaught that government forces made on the Tamil population that was encircled and trapped in a corner of the country. The result was a massacre of biblical proportions that has still not been properly acknowledged.

Are we going to see another such thing in the Donbas ?

Regards, Phil
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"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1034
Joined: 2005
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/19/2022 10:36:30 AM
It sure seems that way Phil. Question I have, what can be done about it? Supplying Ukraine with military supplies is one thing, but that alone is not going to stop or prevent Russia from continuing on with its aggressive actions.





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"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5452
Joined: 2004
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/19/2022 10:55:02 AM
Dan,

The Ukrainians might yet win this : although there are immense odds for them to contend with.

Encircling the encirclers : has this been done ? Stalingrad, I suppose, Operation Uranus.

I couldn't help thinking of Churchill this morning, when Zelensky said that the Battle for the Donbas has begun.

June 4 1940 :

....the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin......The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned on us now. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this island or lose the war...

This morning I had a British military man opine that, if he had to bet on it, he would give the Ukrainians the edge - only just - on account of superior morale, fighting prowess and resolve. A desperate business.

Regards, Phil
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"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Lightning
Glasgow  UK
Posts: 822
Joined: 2005
Has the Eastern offensive began?
4/19/2022 5:00:35 PM
The Ukrainians must win this fight or lose their country. The Russian troops have other options.

Cheers,

Colin

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"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."

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