MILITARY HISTORY ONLINE

User:  
Password:  
 
 (2000-Pres) Current Day Military talk (No Partisan Politics)
Page 1 of 9 (Page:   1    2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 )
Message
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/4/2021 7:28:13 PM
This is one Im losing sleep over. The Russians are massing on the Ukrainian border and the Chinese are flying over Taiwan with refullers and fighters are they together on this, Russians and the Chinese?. They may be deciding to attack at the same time. The US has never been more poorly lead at this time in history, this may be the time for simultaneous attacks,
Can the US still fight two front wars? Do we have hypersonic weapons?

very scary

vpatrick
----------------------------------
nuts
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/6/2021 8:56:36 PM
You probably won't reply to me Vin but what exactly do you expect from US leadership at this time?

Condemnation of aggressive action by China and by Russia has happened and not just by the US. This would be the norm for most leaders of the US although I suggest that the previous President would be less likely to condemn the Russians than the current President.

The current administration has sent millions to Ukraine to help them defend themselves. I believe that two patrol boats have been despatched. The arms package includes javelin anti-tank missiles that Ukraine has requested.

Are you suggesting a pre-emptive attack on one or the other of Russia or China?

Biden and Putin will be in discussion shortly. Putin has already said that an increase in the number of NATO troops in Ukraine would be a red line for him. We should find out shortly what the US' red line is but I suspect that severe international sanctions would be the first step in a confrontation.

As for Taiwan, have you asked why the US is concerned about this tiny island off the coast of mainland China? How has this island come to be included within the US sphere of influence and why?

Cheers,

George
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/10/2021 3:31:53 PM
Hi George,,

I dont have a problem responding to you and I do not hold any animosity towards you because of our different views and tangles on LFF, I will say since LFF closed I dont need blood pressure medicine anymore, probably self inflicted if anything. My comments concerning Taiwan and Russia are my perceptions concerning the current president who seems to be in over his head especially after the chaotic withdrawal in Afghanistan that needed to happen but was executed with almost criminal negligence. My concerns are that Russia and China may feel this is the time to act after witnessing this. Maybe my perceptions are jaded and I almost hope they are and that my own perceptions are false and I really dont need to worry. I guess I was looking for some assurances from others who may see this differently than me. I am not looking to compare and contrast the last administration to the current one. Or make an argument which one was the better one, Im dealing with today right now.

I dont want war or any pre-emptive attacks and I think Nato should cool it with their eastern expansion and believe it will lead to war if Nato does not respect Russian paranoia concerning it's historical fear of encroachment on its border. I cant believe after all the wars and history here we are again with troops massing on borders in Europe, alliances are great but they also cause war, take my comments about this for what they are, Im not smart enough or knowledgeable enough to solve this crisis but diplomacy and cooler heads are needed, not war drums, my comments are based on my own fears and what I see and read (who knows what is correct today in what we see and read) . Im just not sure the US has the people in place that understand this and maybe the last several administrations did not either and I just cant help thinking that Russia and China smell weakness and will admit again its a gut feeling based on my own perceptions right or wrong they are just mine.

I did read the Ukrainians were given a couple of hundred Javelin missiles and a couple of patrol boats not sure how that would deter thousands of Russian tanks. I think the contribution will amount to nothing and has only pissed the Russians off. As far as Taiwan that "tiny" Island has 23 million people on it and they dont want to be part of mainland China and neither did Tibet. And I do ask myself why this Island is important to the US and included in the US sphere of influence. I have been sold a bill of goods by my government about freedom and democracy in the past as reasons for war and its all bullshit maybe this reason really is micro-chips instead of oil this time, again just my thoughts? But i do feel for the people in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Tibet who want self determination and just want to live their lives in peace. I dont think the US should go to war over Taiwan either but feel something beyond what I "want" is coming . Sanctions dont seem to cut it anymore.

So George my comments are not combative or am I looking to win an argument Im hoping to lose one.

I sincerely hope all is well

vpatrick

----------------------------------
nuts
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/10/2021 4:43:53 PM
Thank you for responding, Vin. I actually hope that we can find a way to be friendlier to one another.

I actually agree with most of what you have said but I am not sure that any President was prepared to manage the Afghanistan withdrawal. It seems that everyone got caught unawares as the Taliban moved with lightening speed, and were largely not opposed by the Afghan army. The whole operation was a mess and I am not proud of the way that my country mismanaged the exfiltration of interpreters and others who worked with our forces.

And I feel for the people of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine. All three are claimed by a larger power and I did read that Putin feels that Ukraine including Crimea have historically been part of Russia. One article suggested that the Russian language has its roots there. If so, I doubt that he has much sympathy for the national aspirations of Ukrainians. Putin is an old time KGB operative and in those days, maintenance of a wall of buffer states between the USSR and the west was important. It appears that Russia would like to establish that arms length control of border countries.

Xi undoubtedly feels that Taiwan and Hong Kong are part of China and that China has a legitimate claim.

Russia has stated that the only thing that they want is a guarantee that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO. Is that a reasonable request? Beats me.

Cheers, Vin

George

George
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/10/2021 6:08:28 PM
Quote:
Thank you for responding, Vin. I actually hope that we can find a way to be friendlier to one another.


Hi George,

I could not agree more and Ill expand that to be friendlier with everyone that thinks differently conversations need to happen along with respect. The last 6 years have been crazy and there are so many rabbit holes we could go down as to why we are where we are culturally right now. Ill just say for me after the election I cancelled every social media account I had and obviously LFF stopped and I sought out media sources that I did not necessarily agree with but trusted the author. Mostly pod casts and not the toe tapping ones I agreed with and nodded along with but liberals that were honest but called bullshit on both sides.

George
I apologize for my over reactions concerning our interactions on LFF and what ever bullshit I said. While we dont have alot of political connections we both love hockey and "Star TreK"


hope you and your family have great holidays


vpatrick
----------------------------------
nuts
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/10/2021 8:28:01 PM
VP, I quite agree with you. These are both issues of great concern, and solutions – particularly re Ukraine after the Biden-Putin video chat – look increasingly awkward.

Whether issues in eastern Europe and the far east reflect a concerted, unified from Russia and China is perhaps a fair question. Personally, I think it might just be a question of sensible strategic thinking, with neither Russia nor China giving a damn for the other’s issue but both willing to use the other’s issue as a mens of dealing with a potentially weakened adversary.

There was an article online in the NYT (yes, an op-ed, though the NYT has dropped that label) dealing with this issue, but with a focus on Ukraine. It was noteworthy enough for friends to send me links to it, largely because of it’s bluntness about the US. I’ve tried to find the article to offer a link, but have not yet been able to find it.

Basically, and without once getting into specifics, it argued that over the past six years the US has lost two wars, deserted a number of allies in need, and indicated the US was no longer a major supporter of NATO, an alliance it has mocked and threatened. Simultaneously, the US has soured or altered economic relations with many nations, both friendly and antagonistic, while supporting an “America First” policy which appears unable to be sustained. US citizens (and industry!?) continue to demand products at a price their own labour force cannot meet.

Now, IIUC, Mr Biden has assumed the role of the leader of the western world, when many western nations feel the US had abdicated that role. And he is making comments which – under a Clinton or a Reagan, may have been reflective of US moral and military authority (support for or response to Russian activity in Ukraine with include sanctions but no boots on the ground) – he has not one reason to believe is true. He may be speaking for US commitments, but someone should explain that the US is part of NATO, rather than the other way around.

Your comments concerning “encroachment” on “Mother Russia” are IMHO well-considered. It always struck me as bizarre, e.g., that while the US and its allies were establishing bases in Turkey and Japan armed with God knows what strategic and/or nuclear weapons, to get deterrent in the USS’s face, the US threatened war over Cuban missile sites. Didn’t Gary Powers fly out of a clandestine US base in Pakistan?

If Putin is playing the “encroachment” card he is bound to garner some support in Russia. If he believes the “encroachment” theory, we may have a problem. And somebody need to send Mr Putin a post-KGB deck of Tarot cards.

I could see him invading Ukraine, playing a limited game just as he has in the Black Sea (and, it crosses my mind, Hitler did in the Sudetenland in 1938). And if he does, I’m not aware of any NATO force capable of stopping him, without military support from the US. Which Mr Biden has said will not be forthcoming. Should NATO troops respond to a Russian incursion into Ukraine, this would of course weaken US honour and authority further.

There has always been the argument that the US Army is designed to fight the USSR in the Fulda Gap, where it could not lose. Is Ukraine close enough to play ball, or do we have to wait until Putin’s counter-push gets us back to Cold War boundaries.

Sorry. Haven’t even touched Taiwan. Maybe tomorrow.

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
Michigan Dave
Muskegon MI USA
Posts: 6869
Joined: 2006
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/11/2021 10:03:59 AM
Quote:
Quote:
Thank you for responding, Vin. I actually hope that we can find a way to be friendlier to one another.


Hi George,

I could not agree more and Ill expand that to be friendlier with everyone that thinks differently conversations need to happen along with respect. The last 6 years have been crazy and there are so many rabbit holes we could go down as to why we are where we are culturally right now. Ill just say for me after the election I cancelled every social media account I had and obviously LFF stopped and I sought out media sources that I did not necessarily agree with but trusted the author. Mostly pod casts and not the toe tapping ones I agreed with and nodded along with but liberals that were honest but called bullshit on both sides.

George
I apologize for my over reactions concerning our interactions on LFF and what ever bullshit I said. While we dont have alot of political connections we both love hockey and "Star TreK"


hope you and your family have great holidays


vpatrick



Hi Vince, & George,

Good to see you guys being so Civil, & not so 1 sided, as you know I always thought LFF was to volatile, & stayed away! I only hope most of us can be as civil, & put away our differences! I also hope to reconcile with my relatives from the other points of view?!

Hope that peace stays in our world with regards to Taiwan, & Ukraine!?

Peace, & happy holidays!
MD


----------------------------------
"The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract."
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/11/2021 11:31:54 AM
Vin, I am of the belief that if we sat together over a coffee or something stronger that we would find a lot of common ground. And hockey would be one interest that we share. We may even find some agreement on political policy.

And if not, we would see that neither of us has fangs. The anonymity of the internet makes it too easy to be aggressive rather than politely assertive. Let us pledge to ensure that the events of LFF are not repeated.

Merry Christmas,

George

kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3040
Joined: 2010
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/11/2021 1:37:25 PM
Quote:
Vin, I am of the belief that if we sat together over a coffee or something stronger that we would find a lot of common ground. And hockey would be one interest that we share. We may even find some agreement on political policy.

And if not, we would see that neither of us has fangs. The anonymity of the internet makes it too easy to be aggressive rather than politely assertive. Let us pledge to ensure that the events of LFF are not repeated.

Merry Christmas,

George



I would happily join you guys for that coffee, at least through virtual means.

LFF is gone, probably for the best - although I must admit I did enjoy many of the exchanges that happened there - and I am happy to see hatches being buried.

Here's to maintaining friendships and civil discussions!

K
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/12/2021 7:43:59 PM
Quote:
Vin, I am of the belief that if we sat together over a coffee or something stronger that we would find a lot of common ground. And hockey would be one interest that we share. We may even find some agreement on political policy.

And if not, we would see that neither of us has fangs. The anonymity of the internet makes it too easy to be aggressive rather than politely assertive. Let us pledge to ensure that the events of LFF are not repeated.

Merry Christmas,

George



Very true, when not faced with someone across a table you cant see the person or their humanity. I think when you are engaging with someone that thinks differently than you and you get pissed off your brain may make up a character of that person that is false when on the internet vs real life. On LFF we had a small group of people constantly at odds the same folks for years, so instead of just passing jibes among millions we had 10 folks or so, and when you woke up and saw something you did not like posted by the person you disagreed with for years on end it became personal on LFF, and Im glad LFF is gone just for that reason. On Twitter its different you can say what you want to say could get trolled or not but then its over but there are millions of posters so it get diluted. I was never a Twitter nut was overwhelming to be honest and there is so much disinformation on sites like that which I truly feel are unhealthy for the soul and why I dont participate anymore. Im getting nostalgic to the days of no phones no social media and where we talked to one another. I initially thought being of the generation that grew up half my life with no internet and then the other half with the advent of the internet, Google and social media where information any information would be in the palm of your hand I was sure we would become a truly advanced society, more advanced civilization and things like military buildups on European borders a thing of the past, but it seems we have regressed not advanced.

Maybe my age is showing but for me Im currently in the market for a flip phone.

And Merry Christmas back at you George.

vpatrick
----------------------------------
nuts
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/12/2021 8:57:23 PM
Vin, I have used a flip phone for years. Small, fits in my pocket and I never pocket dial anybody. But the damned thing wouldn't take a charge and so my kids, well adult children, made me get something smart. So I bought a phone by Motorola but all I want to do is talk. I don't need a data plan. Everybody I know carries these little computers around with them. My kids roll their eyes. I get it. They think that the old man is a dinosaur.

So now I've got this thing that is twice the size of my old flip phone, doesn't fit anywhere. I made a mistake and wish I had just bought another flip phone.

A kid from the sales department at Bell called me when I had the flip and said that he noticed that I wasn't using my phone very much. He said, "Perhaps if you had a better phone you would enjoy the telephone experience more". I laughed at that one.

See Vin. We do have something in common. My phone is just my communicator. Beam me up, Scotty.

Cheers,

George
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 6:46:55 AM
News in the Financial Times suggests that Germany is actively discouraging - perhaps even preventing - the transfer of NATO material support to Kiev. I confess that I haven’t read the paper, so I hope I’m mistaken in my interpretation.

If this is true, then compared with what is happening now, the shame of the 1938 Munich agreement will look like the Glory of the Alamo.

Editing : having just googled the FT article, I regret that my interpretation is endorsed.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 8:17:00 AM
News in the Financial Times suggests that Germany is actively discouraging - perhaps even preventing - the transfer of NATO material support to Kiev. I confess that I haven’t read the paper, so I hope I’m mistaken in my interpretation.

If this is true, then compared with what is happening now, the shame of the 1938 Munich agreement will look like the Glory of the Alamo.

Editing : having just googled the FT article, I regret that my interpretation is endorsed.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 8:21:43 AM
Double posts, sorry.
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 8:30:57 AM
Why would Germany withhold NATO aid, Phil. Is it the gas line thing?

Cheers,

George
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 10:30:55 AM
George,

Someone better qualified than I am might answer that.

Kai or Trevor, perhaps.

The pipeline is always to the fore in the journalism.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
morris crumley
Dunwoody GA USA
Posts: 2974
Joined: 2007
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 12:23:57 PM
Taiwan, for one thing, is the largest supplier of computer chips in the world. China is second. I can`t wait for communist China to have a monopoly on chip production....it worked out so well with PPE during the early days of the China virus.

So, Taiwan may be a tiny island off the coast of China....but it is much more than that!

Morris
----------------------------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."
scoucer
Berlin  Germany
Posts: 2961
Joined: 2010
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/13/2021 2:32:48 PM
Quote:
George,

Someone better qualified than I am might answer that.

Kai or Trevor, perhaps.

The pipeline is always to the fore in the journalism.

Regards, Phil


Sounds like bollocks to me. Apart from my complete, perhaps slightly irrational, distrust of anything in the British press concerning Germany. I suspect it is a constitutional technical hitch. Just as the deployment of German troops on foreign soil requires a parliamentary mandate, the transfer/sale of weapons requires the permission of the Defence Minister and the Parliamentary Commission for Defence. The new government was only sworn in on Saturday. These tend to be formalities when it is under a request from the UN or a request from a NATO ally. The Ukraine, however, is not a NATO ally. I suspect a senior civil servant is going by the law until the new Defence Minister has put pen to paper. The rules about sales/transfer of weapons into crisis areas are very strict and quite a few senior civil servants and Defence Ministers have come unstuck over controversial dodgy deals with, for example, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/15/2021 9:12:26 AM
Quote:
Quote:
George,

Someone better qualified than I am might answer that.

Kai or Trevor, perhaps.

The pipeline is always to the fore in the journalism.

Regards, Phil


Sounds like bollocks to me. Apart from my complete, perhaps slightly irrational, distrust of anything in the British press concerning Germany. I suspect it is a constitutional technical hitch. Just as the deployment of German troops on foreign soil requires a parliamentary mandate, the transfer/sale of weapons requires the permission of the Defence Minister and the Parliamentary Commission for Defence. The new government was only sworn in on Saturday. These tend to be formalities when it is under a request from the UN or a request from a NATO ally. The Ukraine, however, is not a NATO ally. I suspect a senior civil servant is going by the law until the new Defence Minister has put pen to paper. The rules about sales/transfer of weapons into crisis areas are very strict and quite a few senior civil servants and Defence Ministers have come unstuck over controversial dodgy deals with, for example, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Trevor



Trevor,

Only the Financial Times had pitched this story into the British press, as far as I know.

Today it’s been cited in The Times, with mention of Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, complaining that Germany had blocked the supply of weapons to Ukraine via Nato.

According to Reznikov, Berlin had, in the past month, vetoed Ukraine’s purchase of anti-drone rifles and anti- sniper systems via the Nato support and procurement agency. Reznikov then admitted that Germany had since relented on the anti-drone device, deeming it non lethal. The German foreign ministry declined to comment on Monday, saying discussions and decisions within the alliance are confidential.

The Times also states that “ Splits are emerging over Russia in the German coalition.”

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1032
Joined: 2005
Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
12/15/2021 12:14:45 PM
"RUSSIAN DECEPTION OPS RAISE RISK OF SURPRISE ATTACK ON UKRAINE"

[Read More]

"Some experts contend that the visibility of recent Russian movements suggests that Moscow is looking for diplomatic leverage rather than laying the groundwork for a major military offensive. However, Russia’s constant shuffling of units and hardware may be part of a deception operation intended to create confusion and maintain an element of operational surprise."

----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Russian Chinese collusion
12/17/2021 7:34:19 PM
Quote:
VP, I quite agree with you. These are both issues of great concern, and solutions – particularly re Ukraine after the Biden-Putin video chat – look increasingly awkward.

Whether issues in eastern Europe and the far east reflect a concerted, unified from Russia and China is perhaps a fair question. Personally, I think it might just be a question of sensible strategic thinking, with neither Russia nor China giving a damn for the other’s issue but both willing to use the other’s issue as a mens of dealing with a potentially weakened adversary.

There was an article online in the NYT (yes, an op-ed, though the NYT has dropped that label) dealing with this issue, but with a focus on Ukraine. It was noteworthy enough for friends to send me links to it, largely because of it’s bluntness about the US. I’ve tried to find the article to offer a link, but have not yet been able to find it.

Basically, and without once getting into specifics, it argued that over the past six years the US has lost two wars, deserted a number of allies in need, and indicated the US was no longer a major supporter of NATO, an alliance it has mocked and threatened. Simultaneously, the US has soured or altered economic relations with many nations, both friendly and antagonistic, while supporting an “America First” policy which appears unable to be sustained. US citizens (and industry!?) continue to demand products at a price their own labour force cannot meet.

Now, IIUC, Mr Biden has assumed the role of the leader of the western world, when many western nations feel the US had abdicated that role. And he is making comments which – under a Clinton or a Reagan, may have been reflective of US moral and military authority (support for or response to Russian activity in Ukraine with include sanctions but no boots on the ground) – he has not one reason to believe is true. He may be speaking for US commitments, but someone should explain that the US is part of NATO, rather than the other way around.

Your comments concerning “encroachment” on “Mother Russia” are IMHO well-considered. It always struck me as bizarre, e.g., that while the US and its allies were establishing bases in Turkey and Japan armed with God knows what strategic and/or nuclear weapons, to get deterrent in the USS’s face, the US threatened war over Cuban missile sites. Didn’t Gary Powers fly out of a clandestine US base in Pakistan?

If Putin is playing the “encroachment” card he is bound to garner some support in Russia. If he believes the “encroachment” theory, we may have a problem. And somebody need to send Mr Putin a post-KGB deck of Tarot cards.

I could see him invading Ukraine, playing a limited game just as he has in the Black Sea (and, it crosses my mind, Hitler did in the Sudetenland in 1938). And if he does, I’m not aware of any NATO force capable of stopping him, without military support from the US. Which Mr Biden has said will not be forthcoming. Should NATO troops respond to a Russian incursion into Ukraine, this would of course weaken US honour and authority further.

There has always been the argument that the US Army is designed to fight the USSR in the Fulda Gap, where it could not lose. Is Ukraine close enough to play ball, or do we have to wait until Putin’s counter-push gets us back to Cold War boundaries.

Sorry. Haven’t even touched Taiwan. Maybe tomorrow.

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G


Hi Brian,

I think you summed up some the reasons as to why Russia may be planning to achieve some strategic goals right now and I agree. What worries me further I think Russia and China may be coordinating plans. I also understand your comments about the Cuban missile crisis, Im not sure if the Monroe doctrine was still in place then but Cuba was until 1959 definitely in the US orbit and I think the range of missiles may have been shorter then and then to put them that close to Florida (90 miles) was unacceptable especially during the height of the cold war and nuclear fear. The same treaties are in place in Europe not to put short range/medium nuclear missiles on borders in Europe. I wonder if the US put nuclear missiles in Taiwan would that compare?

If Russia and China are conspiring to achieve some strategic goals I wonder if it may be time for Western Europe to pay attention to their militaries. If the US gets weak, divided, or indecisive a strong continental Europe of Nato allies may counter Russian aggression and give pause to a Russo-China pact, a European Military force a force that could rapidly deploy thousands of tanks, planes and troops to the Russian border to counter Putin's threats currently this cant be done and he knows it . I also think Nato expansion on Russian borders needs to stop because clearly the Russians hate it and I think its understandable given their history.

vpatrick





Potential Russian Invasion and Taiwan?
----------------------------------
nuts
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1032
Joined: 2005
Russian Chinese collusion
1/9/2022 1:16:30 PM
To clarify, during Trumps presidential tenure, the first two years of, nearly $800 million was given to Ukraine. The Obama admin also gave money to the Ukrainians but this was largely non-military funds of which then Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko stated; "Blankets and night-vision goggles are also important but, one cannot win a war with blankets!" And the Biden admin has withheld $200 million in aid to the Ukraine, though that may be released at some point, after an invasion by Russia; "there are a number of other options on the table for further assistance to Ukraine, including a much larger package of aid that would be approved in the event of further incursion by Russia.", meaning afterwards.

While the "proxy war" has been ongoing for several years, another Russian invasion of the Ukraine will find the Ukrainian military a stronger foe than in 2014. Can the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) stop or defeat Russian forces, very unlikely. But, the UAF can and will send many Russian troops back home in coffins, which for Putin, could negatively impact his throttle of Russian government control.

A large scale invasion would be a huge disaster not just for the Ukrainians, a negative impact of foodstuffs coming from the Donets region would hurt western Europe greatly. We all know the game Putin is playing with natural gas, imagine him having control of the Ukrainian food-basket!

----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
Larry Purtell
Little Meadows PA USA
Posts: 1430
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/15/2022 9:41:14 AM
I see reports here in the US of a huge cyber attack on Ukraine. Just a little warning of what could happen?

Larry
----------------------------------
"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12132
Joined: 2009
Russian Chinese collusion
1/15/2022 11:30:42 AM
Quote:
I see reports here in the US of a huge cyber attack on Ukraine. Just a little warning of what could happen?

Larry


We got the same report. Other reports suggested that something like a cyber attack may be the precursor to a "false flag" attack by Russians pretending to be Ukrainians. That would give Putin an excuse to come in. The report on a possible false flag attack comes from US sources.

With Ukraine government communications compromised, it would be possible to create a false flag scenario that falsely implicates Ukraine.

Not a good situation right now.

George
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Russian Chinese collusion
1/15/2022 5:53:23 PM
I think China will attack Taiwan at the same time Russia does in the Ukraine. and if they cant coordinate it wont happen

vpatrick
----------------------------------
nuts
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/15/2022 8:50:29 PM
VP, l wonder? Your suggestion depends, it seems to me, on the role of the US in both potential conflicts, and the concept that Chinese and Russian interests are linked. I’m not sure either premise is correct, or at least as firm as you think. There may be similarities concerning China’s view of Taiwan and Russia’s of Ukraine, but I’m not convinced the efforts are going to be linked militarily.

So much is being raised on this thread right now, and I have to get on with other things. Maybe I can join back in later tonight.

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
Larry Purtell
Little Meadows PA USA
Posts: 1430
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/17/2022 2:08:18 PM
Quote:
Quote:
I see reports here in the US of a huge cyber attack on Ukraine. Just a little warning of what could happen?

Larry


We got the same report. Other reports suggested that something like a cyber attack may be the precursor to a "false flag" attack by Russians pretending to be Ukrainians. That would give Putin an excuse to come in. The report on a possible false flag attack comes from US sources.

With Ukraine government communications compromised, it would be possible to create a false flag scenario that falsely implicates Ukraine.

Not a good situation right now.

George


Hi George. Thanks for your input. Always glad to hear from you. This story seems to have taken back seat in U.S. news.

Larry
----------------------------------
"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/17/2022 8:47:47 PM
And, at 17:30 PST, I spot this.

[Read More]

I know that this joint exercise has been under discussion for a couple of months, but for a while it appeared to be a political rather than physical issue. But this move does place Russian troops within much better striking distance of Kyiv than the activities confined to the Russian/Ukranian border alone. That this also spreads Ukranian forces even more thinly is obvious, I guess.

Am I wrong, or does this reek of the brinksmanship practised by Hitler in September 1938?

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3040
Joined: 2010
Russian Chinese collusion
1/19/2022 5:25:52 PM
Quote:


Am I wrong, or does this reek of the brinksmanship practised by Hitler in September 1938?

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G


You are not wrong Brian, we are in Munich and unfortunately there are plenty of Chamberlains around.

K
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/19/2022 6:08:04 PM
Kai, thanks (I guess) for your agreement. Two questions:
1. I note that Kazakhstan has become amazingly two-faced about their problems, and that Russian “peace-keepers” have been withdrawn. So while for a short time I wondered what impact Russian deployment to Kazakhstan might have on the Ukraine timetable, I suppose my question of the extent of readiness Russian troops is moot. Except … I have some idea of the size of Russia’s military, but not of its commitment to expansionist aggression.
2. I note that Germany is talking tough, and keep in mind that NATO was generated to present a united military force against the USSR. It now seems to face a force it cannot contest over an objective which is directly correlated to NATO’s founding principles, and this in its own way seems to belie at least some of Mr Putin’s arguments. If NATO is not a viable threat, might this assure Mr. Putin that he needn’t worry about anything but political aggression in Ukraine? Or is the demonstrated ineffectiveness of the NATO alliance drive him to make the threatened assault on Ukraine a reality?

Additionally, I find myself wondering whether political nonsense between Ukraine and the US over the past 4-5 years played a major part in Mr Putin’s deliberations. But that is a projection too far, I believe …

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
Lightning
Glasgow  UK
Posts: 819
Joined: 2005
Russian Chinese collusion
1/20/2022 4:14:24 AM
Morning all,

If NATO/the EU/the US doesn't make its united position clear on this, the Russians will invade and overwhelm Ukraine very soon. Military opposition by the West to a Russian invasion is unpalatable, so it will need to be economic and political sanctions instead, probably heralding a new Cold War. Putin must be made well aware that to invade Ukraine is to make Russia a global pariah state.

Colin
----------------------------------
"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/20/2022 9:02:24 PM
Colin, I’ll not disagree with your general assessment. And while I agree that NATO military retaliation would be unpalatable, I’m of the opinion that a “piece of paper” promising no further aggression and “peace in our time” would also be unpalatable.

At issue, unfortunately, is not just Putin’s agenda but Western leaders’ responses. There is, as Kai noted, no shortage of Chamberlains making themselves heard. I am particularly shocked by Mr Biden’s’ description of an invasion of Ukraine as a “minor incursion”. If he didn’t used “minor”, “incursion” is by definition a minor event. That is the closest parallel to some of Chamberlain’s Czechoslovakian debacle I have seen to this point.Quote:
Putin must be made well aware that to invade Ukraine is to make Russia a global pariah state.
I agree. but economic sanctions and moral opprobrium are neither of them the language Mr Putin understands.

I think I get what is motivating Mr Putin, at least at a diplomatic level. And however it might be said in Russian, I’m certain he can make an argument against Western, NATO values “making incursions” into Russian-protected former SSRs. Am I wrong in thinking he wants to reinstate a buffer zone such as the Warsaw Pact countries provided from 1948 to 1989? Certain of the former western SSRs (Latvia, Belarus and southeastern Ukraine stand out) have – for a variety of reasons going back to Stalin – relatively large Russian populations, which provide at least a similar argument to that used for the Sudeten Germans in 1938. This might not be “Sell-out II”, but I have trouble not seeing it as “Munich II”.

I think I could conjure reasons why the NATO and allied forces are reluctant to face aggression with counter-aggression. While I reject things are as vicious as formerly, I might argue we are facing battle-weariness, as well as loss-awareness and lack of victory over 25 years of assault against forces who fight more effectively on their terms than do western forces. This isn’t the immense social and cultural loss of the Great War, but it might be an equivalent giving the lack of victory in wars over the past 65 years.

All I can suggest is that the US and her allies were determined (with the assistance of “the willing”) to destroy military/cultural movements by means developed for total war, and that their failures (yes, plurals!) have left them weary of battle deaths and uncertain of their military capabilities when facing a Russian military force it had spent some seventy years preparing to fight.

Even in a country such as Canada, with a weak military presence and a better recent reputation for peace-keeping than aggressive combat, I find it shameful that our response to the Ukraine’s request for support is to send one “small ship” to the Black Sea.

I could go on. But what remains in my mind is that Ukraine is not a token but a sovereign nation. Without more than undefined threats of economic/social/travel/“god-knows what” restrictions, it is likely to be assaulted, and though it might seem a “minor incursion” sitting in the Big House in Washington, it is the destruction of a country to those who live there.

If we don’t act, shame on us!

Cheers,
Brian G

----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/21/2022 2:55:04 AM
Quote:
Morning all,

If NATO/the EU/the US doesn't make its united position clear on this, the Russians will invade and overwhelm Ukraine very soon. Military opposition by the West to a Russian invasion is unpalatable, so it will need to be economic and political sanctions instead, probably heralding a new Cold War. Putin must be made well aware that to invade Ukraine is to make Russia a global pariah state.

Colin


NATO/ EU/ USA and united position is not happening. “The West” is distracted and in disarray, and Putin will exploit this. Biden’s faltering , the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a dog’s breakfast, British political shenanigans are tantamount to a grotesque circus, Germany is fragmenting dangerously, France is in an acute identity crisis, the inflation demon is running amok and we’re frantic about the energy costs that are smiting us hip and thigh. Add the impact of Covid into this, and we’re not stacking up to much in terms of a formidable bulwark, are we ?

Let’s hope that Putin himself is struggling with his own problems. I wonder if the Chinese will give him a “ blank cheque” rather redolent of the German support of Austria in the summer of 1914.


Today Netflix screens its much heralded Munich film and we can reflect on the parallels . The Chamberlains are being reviled, but let’s not forget that at least he and his counterparts were prepared to fight eventually.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
scoucer
Berlin  Germany
Posts: 2961
Joined: 2010
Russian Chinese collusion
1/21/2022 10:10:04 AM
Quote:
Germany is fragmenting dangerously,

Regards, Phil


Where did you get this idea Phil ?

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil Andrade
London  UK
Posts: 5408
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/21/2022 4:57:55 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Germany is fragmenting dangerously,

Regards, Phil


Where did you get this idea Phil ?

Trevor


Comments from Katja Hoyer and bild, Trevor.

The Times cite them now and then.

My interpretation may well be very flawed : I wish I’d not used that word “ fragmenting “.



Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/21/2022 8:20:54 PM
Trevor, may I note that in the last 24 hours I have read essentially a similar tale that Phil tells, though with slightly different focus. The argument I got was that Germany was no longer choosing to behave as the leader of European military values, and that as a result what could have been a united military stance against Russian aggression was in fragments. Instead of “was in fragments”, it may have read “will be fragmentary’; I recognize those are two separate statements. I can’t remember the source, but the likely source, given today’s agenda, was either the Washington Post or the Guardian.

Later in the day, I glimpsed a headline (“Independent” online) reading “West pushing Putin into war he does not want”. I’m saving that for my “afters”!

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
scoucer
Berlin  Germany
Posts: 2961
Joined: 2010
Russian Chinese collusion
1/22/2022 6:41:32 AM
Brian and Phil,

I have for years stopped reading the British and American press and "Bild" is about the niveau of the British Daily Mail. So, any media I read is German ( Swiss particularly, Austrian) and to particular themes I´ll read French, Spanish, Dutch or Italian newspapers. I am tired of the Anglo-centric bubble seeing the world through the prism of it´s rapidly degenerating exceptionalism.

Trevor

PS Katja Hoyer is a member of the "Die Linke" party. So in the UK she would be considered a Corbynista.
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
morris crumley
Dunwoody GA USA
Posts: 2974
Joined: 2007
Russian Chinese collusion
1/22/2022 10:20:00 AM
Perhaps Lt. Col. Vindman (Retired) can save his beloved Ukraine from Russians rumbling through the countryside....now that they have been invited in.
----------------------------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."
vpatrick
MA MA USA
Posts: 2193
Joined: 2020
Russian Chinese collusion
1/22/2022 5:57:29 PM
Morris hope you are well but as your "wing man" please stop with political overtones. I cant be a hypocrite..


vpatrick
----------------------------------
nuts
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 4142
Joined: 2004
Russian Chinese collusion
1/22/2022 10:25:32 PM
Trevor, if only I had your language skills! Unfortunately, I don’t. And so I spend my efforts trying to find a variety of English-generated news sources and some which might be translated services.

I’ll admit I’m a bit confused by what you might mean by “the Anglo-centric bubble seeing the world through the prism of it´s rapidly degenerating exceptionalism”. At the risk of pissing off some good friends, I have always been aware of British arrogance and self-importance. That pre-WW2 headline “Fog in Channel. Continent Isolated” was a mockery made better because many didn’t see it as mocking. A similar false headline, which might read “Continent suffers from lack of trade with Britain!” might be accepted by Brexiters.

Moving just briefly from the topic, IMHO, certain types of Brits assume the Commonwealth and remaining ex-colonial nations revere the UK and are once more ready to leap to aid them in their new venture. This is, IMHO, simply incorrect. I wonder what they read that in any way supports their expectations?

I’ve always associated the term “exceptionalism” with US assessments of its own significance (though I believe the term was first used by a rather different commentator). I’ve never associated the term with GB.

I’m an old man and getting stupid. So give me a hand here. Are you suggesting that there is a GB-US attempt to promote GB-US interests? While I don’t believe the two nations are that close or that affiliated, you may be right. But I’m not sure that news viewed only through European media is any more accurate or honest when facing Putin’s crap or Ukraine’s need.

I have let my recent subscription to NYT lapse, and my support to the Guardian to end. I’m not a TV news junkie – my TV died in May 2019. And I’m open to other new sources. I keep Al Jazeera on my list; I have a friend who says this is the safest source of non-biased news. I have a friend who says the Singapore news source – Times? Strait? – has excellent unbiased reporting. I have no way how I might determine the lack of bias in either of these news formats.

Bottom line, of course, is that you have suggested that information both Phil and I have gleaned reflects British or Anglo values. Fair enough. What are your web preferences saying about the current Ukraine crisis that is different from what Phil and I are reporting. If the suggestion of fragmentation seems to be wrong in your eyes – and that’s what you’re suggesting – then what are your media choices saying that is so different?

Not a challenge, Trevor. Just a question. Are your choices of news outlets more accurate or honest or detached than those you’ve rejected, or are they simply more in line with your own values?

Cheers. And stay safe.
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
Page 1 of 9 (Page:   1    2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 )

© 2022 - MilitaryHistoryOnline.com LLC