17th, interesting question to raise on the eve of the purported birth of the Christ child, about an Israel without a government and with certain Christian sites under lockdown!
I like Wazza’s comment, and agree with his assessment: Quote:
I'm pretty confident with their excellent intelligence services they would have a pretty good idea on locations.
They certainly have the capacity to take out a facility or, surgically remove key scientists from the equation.
The big question is would they do it, knowing the Arab world would certainly retaliate.
That said, I would argue that in the broader sense no nation, not even the US, could take out Iran’s nuclear program without massive overkill. Facilities can be targeted, and probably destroyed, but the facilities are merely the physical plant based on (in this case) Iranian intellectual capability in the field.
So. Yes, I’m pretty certain a strike (whether Israeli, or in sync with other nations, which might be necessary) could take out whatever Iranian nuclear weapon facilities they identified. But I’m less certain they would identify all nuclear facilities accurately. And I don’t think, without massive support from the US (because I’m not convinced such an aggressive measure would find general European support for what could not be seen as anything but an act of war) that Israel would ever get a second chance. Iran is, of course, somewhat isolated in the Arab world, as an officially Shiite nation in a largely Sunni world. But I could see Islam uniting if any Israeli attack was not surgical. And that would not bode Israel any good.
Of course there was/is an international agreement which Iran was a party to suggesting they would not develop nuclear weapons, or even the isotopes (is that right?) of uranium necessary for weapons-grade. The current US administration has done its best to destroy that agreement, though the European contingent still support what te Trump administration has rejected. Personally? Stupid move on the part of the US.
My biggest fear is that political chaos in Israel (four federal elections in 2 years, and no suggestion of any change?) might lead to military actions for political rather than geopolitical reasons. And I will admit I don’t have one reason to trust Israeli intelligence more than I might trust Iran. I think they’re good, but I see them as flawed.
Okay, rant over
Cheers. And stay safe.
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly.
"The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.